Why do most football betting mistakes happen before kickoff?
You choose a market you don’t understand, ignore the stats and run with it. We at Kcpredict want to help you with that.
Football betting markets cover everything from who will win to who will score first. How many corners a side wins or how many cards the referee will pull. We explain how betting on each market requires different research, so you can stop guessing.
We provide a comprehensive guide to three popular football betting markets: goal scorer betting, card betting and corner betting. Explaining how each market works, the stats that matter and common pitfalls newbies make.
Football betting comes from a handful of different categories, most commonly match result bets. These include bets on who wins, draws or loses. Goal markets are on how many goals there are and who scores them; goal-related markets also include odds and corners.
Other markets cover in-game events such as corners, fouls, cards and shots on target. A strong understanding of football betting odds is required across categories. This enables you to recognise value bets and avoid chasing the long shots.
Team form is important in every market. A team on a hot streak will likely score more, win more corners and collect less cards for controlling the game. The same applies to player form. A striker currently in good scoring shape gives a better bet on the next goal scorer than one on a dry run.
Here’s the biggest football betting mistake most people make: betting a single number without asking the why of that number. A team might average three corners a match, but what does that number really mean? Did they face defensive sides who sat deep or play at home where higher scoring AIMs towards the backfield? Context matters. Keep that.
Goal Scorer Betting: Anytime and First Goalscorer Markets
Goal scorer betting lets you bet on a player to score during a match, rather than betting on your team’s chances of a win. Two markets are at the core of this type of bet: anytime goalscorer betting and first goalscorer betting.
Anytime goalscorer betting pays out if your player scores at any time in the game. It’s the easier of the two markets, since you have your twenty-three-man team for 90 minutes and more to go at that. First goalscorer betting is harder because the player must score the first goal of the match, and these depend heavily on how quick a player is at the start of the game.
So, how do you pick a player to score? Start with simple statistics such as the number of goals a player scores per match. This tells you how prolific he is in general. While shots on target reveals how good a player is at actually getting in front of the goalkeeper. Shots on target matters more than the total number of shots; you would prefer a player that you know is regularly testing the goalkeeper, rather than a player that’s mostly shooting Wayne Rooney away.
Another useful statistic is the number of expected goals a player makes. Expected goals, or xG, shows how good a player is relative to the seizing of chances: you can pick up the star striker who is currently hot on the goal if his xG per chance is low and the expectation is that he’ll cool off. He will be entertaining for the present, but isn’t likely to surprise in the long-term.
Assisted numbers are useful too. These will help you pick out midfielders who get in front of the goals a lot. You should also look at attacking statistics such as touches in the penalty area and key passes received. These statistics show how much structure your player gets, so you can gauge whether he’s getting enough in between the sticks for him to score.
Finally, it’s important to take into account the home and away form. Some players don’t perform so well when away from home. You need to consider the difference between these numbers to avoid picking away players who won’t score on the day, because his head-to-head record at home is overplayed.
To assess the first goalscorer in a game, look at how the team usually kicks off. High pressing teams and sides that launch attacks in the early minutes increase the probability that a central striker in the team will score first. Rapid buildups to attack are also beneficial for your first goalscorer betting. Teams that play a slow build up and wait across the half-time whistle result in a lower first goalscorer value for all players involved.
Our best goalscorer recommendations have rich recent form, good head-to-head records and tight positioning from the opposition’s defense. Some goalscorers have to keep an eye on head-to-head stats too. Some goalscorers have a in the match-ups, so good chances indeed… generally result in a win.
Corners Betting – Learning The Match Style and the File Of These Teams
Corners betting is for those who know how teams play, not just who beats whom. Total corners betting is to estimate the number of corners which will be taken in a match. This is usually against a line such as 9.5 or 10.5.
Over corners betting as well as under corners betting is regarded team-match style, and not merely class of team. Possession based multiples that attack the wings are a bonus in generating wins from corners, since these crosses will be tackled or deflected by the half-ton save manner of the opponents. Odds of counter-attacking teams and those that penetrate down the middle will result in few corners being taken.
Team corners betting focuses on one side. This is effective when one team is heavily outplayed, for example a top home side against a defensive away team. Corner handicap betting gives corners a head start to one team, which can yield better value than a simple over/under calculation.
How to bet on corners begins with football corner statistics. Consider corners per match for both teams and whether they differ at home and away. A team that averages a high number of corners at home but fewer away shows a consistent trend that could be exploited. Possession shows the same propensity. Teams with sixty per cent possession or higher tend to force more corners through spending more time in the opponent’s third.
Fouls suffered also has a health effect. A team that gets fouled often near the byline can win set pieces, as this tends to trigger corners. However this is more relevant for free kicks. Defensive statistics also have importance. A defense that can win a cross better will gain more corners that will be put back at them.
Corner prediction tips: look out for a team missing its usual crossing winger, observe coach changes and consider home advantage. If you see a mid-table home side vs a bottom-table away team the total corners is usually above that season’s average for both teams.
Cards Betting And Cutting Down On Mistakes Using Stats
Cards betting is a misnomer in this instance. It includes first and second half, red card, total cards and yellow card betting. Yellow and red card betting is covered under football card betting which includes betting on a specific player to earn a card.
Look at ref stats. Some referees issue way more cards than others. Yellow cards per match vary greatly from one official to another. And it can vary wildly for matches within the same league. You should know which official is working before placing a card bet. There are big differences between a referee who is strict on a derby and a referee who is more relaxed over a mid-table match.
The type of fixture matters. It’s an easy thing to see how many cards you usually get in a derby or relegation/driving match, compared with a mid-season relaxer. Card betting history can help you figure this out. You can see this from fouls committed too, as cards often follow repetitive fouling from a player or team.
Team cards betting also is looking at how a side defends. Teams who defend very deep, resort to late challenges will get more cards than teams who press high and win the ball early. You can see this in the card statistics of a full-season football cards betting at a glance, and that can inform your team cards bet.
The way to bet on yellow cards, or of course red cards, is to investigate if the referee has a tendency to hand them. Consider what the fixture is good for, and look at the team’s discipline record. If the referee handed out a high number of cards in previous games, and it will be a physical derby, then you have a good reason to bet over the total number of cards.
Now, that is exactly where many football bettors make a mistake. They tend to follow the shirt number of the referee for a game and not whether he has similar stats for the current fixture. Because one card heavy referee from last season may not be as hot this season. And stats are fluid year on year.
Comparing Markets and Doing Your Research
One of the best ways to improve your football betting predictions is to realise not every market can be treated the same way. Even though you all have actually made the wrong conclusion that the same stats will apply. You cannot look at corners and think that is what you will also need to look at when betting on card markets. The form of a goal scorer is a completely different story, and there are many public sources that you can do your research on to correct yourself, like the Premier League’s official stats page.
A good habit: create a short menu for each type of bet for each market. If you’re betting on goals, look at recent scores, xG and shots. Look at possession and the home form if you’re betting on corners,. When you bet on cards, look at the referee and how the fixture is being played out. This sort of match analysis will take a few extra minutes, but it will help you avoid the guesswork that can cause the majority of your losses.
You should also understand implied probability. The odds represent what the bookies think will happen, but feature a margin. If your own research suggests something different to the odds, then that’s likely where your value is. Learn more about these concepts, and find out where teams are placing in the UEFA’s official coefficient rankings. Then you judge the team strength in all competitions and apply this information to all three markets we’ve examined.
The Bottom Line: A Summary Of Football Betting Mistakes To Look Out For
Market betting rewards research and patience, not speculation. Picking a goal scorer rewards attention to player form and matchups. Choosing for corners rewards an understanding of the teams’ style. Choosing for cards rewards an understanding of the referee and the stakes of the fixture.
Don’t make the biggest football betting mistake of all: blindly picking a market without looking at the stats behind it. We explain these and other markets in detail at Kcpredict, so you can always bet using real analysis and not guesswork.